With 2025 wrapped up, the music industry enters 2026 in a more mature and measured phase. Growth has not disappeared, but it has slowed and become more uneven. The past year made one thing clear: momentum still exists, but it is increasingly concentrated, and structural limits are starting to show.
Subscriber growth is flattening, average revenue per user is under pressure, and discovery systems often favor scale over experimentation. As a result, the industry’s focus is shifting away from constant experimentation and toward disciplined execution.
In this article, we explore how these shifts are reshaping the music business, why streaming is increasingly functioning as infrastructure rather than a growth engine, and what artists, labels, and partners need to prioritize as they plan for 2026:
Global Revenue Growth Continues, But Concentration Is Increasing
On a global level, the music business continues to expand. The global music industry is forecast to nearly double its total revenues between 2024 and 2035, rising from about $105 billion to nearly $200 billion, even amid slower short-term growth. This long-term outlook underscores both the resilience and growth potential of the business.
Long-term forecasts remain optimistic, with projections suggesting that global music revenues could continue rising over the next decade. This is driven by emerging markets, price increases, and high engagement from superfans.
However, growth is becoming increasingly concentrated. A smaller number of markets, platforms, and artists are capturing a growing share of total revenue. Mature markets are stabilizing rather than accelerating; listener growth in emerging regions often comes with lower average revenue per user.
This imbalance places more pressure on strategy. In 2026, scale alone will no longer guarantee results. Success will depend on identifying where value is created and allocating resources with greater precision.
Streaming Is Reaching Its Economic Limits
Streaming remains the primary way people consume music, but its limitations are becoming clearer.
Streaming now accounts for the majority of recorded music revenue worldwide. At the same time, subscriber growth has slowed in many established markets, and average revenue per user has begun to flatten.
Sure, although streaming provides reach and reliability, it rarely delivers meaningful upside for most artists. Revenue remains heavily volume dependent, with a small percentage of releases capturing a disproportionate share of payouts.
Industry analysis has repeatedly highlighted how this concentration limits sustainability for the majority of working artists. As a result, streaming in 2026 increasingly functions as infrastructure rather than a growth engine. It remains essential, but it is no longer sufficient on its own.
Listening behavior in 2025 highlights just how fragmented attention has become. According to MIDiA’s analysis of Spotify Wrapped 2025, the average listener spent just 4.2% of their total listening time on their top artist while consuming 2,728 songs from 1,488 different artists over the year.
These patterns underline the intense competition for attention facing artists on streaming platforms, even as music continues to dominate audio consumption, with podcast listening accounting for only 2.8% of total music listening time. Together, the data reinforces how discovery is widespread, but sustained engagement with any single artist is increasingly difficult to achieve.
Social Platforms Now Drive Music Discovery
One of the clearest shifts reinforced during 2025 is the role of social platforms in music discovery. Short-form video ecosystems now act as the primary top of funnel for new music exposure. Songs often build momentum culturally before translating into streams or sales.
Data supports this shift. According to MIDiA’s 2025 Spotify Wrapped analysis, the average listener spent just 4.2% of their total listening time on their top artist, highlighting how discovery increasingly relies on repetition and context rather than concentrated attention.
This shift has reshaped marketing strategies. Rather than relying solely on playlists, artists must sustain visibility across social platforms through repeated exposure and contextual storytelling. In 2026, discovery is increasingly cultural first and commercial second, with long-term success tied to consistency rather than momentary reach.
Physical and Experiential Channels Regain Strategic Importance
The renewed interest in physical formats and experiential retail is a response to the economic limits of streaming. Physical releases, pop-ups, and live retail activations offer fixed production costs, pricing flexibility, and clearer margins.
In the United States alone, physical music sales generated billions in revenue in 2024, driven largely by vinyl, according to data from the Recording Industry Association of America. While physical formats represent a smaller share of total revenue, they provide predictability and control that digital channels often lack.
For artists with engaged audiences, physical and experiential strategies allow releases to align with tours, cultural moments, and community events. In 2026, these channels increasingly function as strategic complements to streaming rather than alternatives.
Data Is Becoming the Industry’s Core Advantage
As competition intensifies, data is emerging as one of the industry’s most valuable assets. Insights into fan behavior now guide decisions across release planning, touring, merchandise, and physical production.
Rather than maximizing output, successful teams are prioritizing precision. Understanding where fans are located, how they engage, and which formats resonate most helps reduce waste and improve returns. In a crowded ecosystem, informed decisions consistently outperform louder campaigns.
Looking Ahead to 2026
The defining characteristic of 2026 will be discipline. The artists and companies that succeed will not necessarily release more music or spend more on promotion. They will make clearer choices about where to invest and how to build durable relationships with their audiences.
As the industry matures, value is shifting away from pure scale and toward ownership, insight, and focus. The next phase of growth will belong to those who understand that clarity is now the most valuable asset in music.
At Reprtoir, we help music businesses navigate the music industry in 2026 with clarity, insight, and practical tools. Find out more today.
